Groundswell Explainers
What the heck is COP26 – and why should I care?
Words by Greer Gamble | Gadigal Land
With a return to normality on Australia’s horizon, you might have noticed a new acronym joining COVID-19 in your newsfeed: COP26.
Boris Johnson engulfed in pre-COP26 summit row, reads one headline. Australia is shaping up to be the villain of COP26, is another we’re seeing a lot of. Australia’s top 20 Instagram stars revealed – oh, I guess the Daily Telegraph is less interested in COP26 than most news sites. Anyway.
Here’s the thing. Despite what its name might lead you to believe, COP26 isn’t actually 26 cops coming together for a weirdly highly publicised lunch. To be completely frank with you, it’s not even one cop.
It’s the UN’s 26th annual Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, and it’s due to be held in the first two weeks of November this year. COP26 gets its catchy name from ‘Conference of the Parties’, the ‘parties’ being the 190+ world leaders in attendance who represent nearly every country on earth.
There’s a reason this year’s COP is getting so much press. It isn’t just because the world is burning. Or because Scott promised he would play with Emmanuel’s submarines, but now he wants to play with Joe’s instead. It’s because this is the first time the ‘parties’ (read: countries) will be coming to the table with updated targets.
See, when the parties agreed to try and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees back at the 2015 conference in Paris, the plans they laid out to get there didn’t really add up. In fact, their 2015 plans – known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs – would actually result in 3 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100, were they put into practice. This level of warming would lead to catastrophic flooding, bushfires and other extreme weather events, as well as a pretty much wholesale destruction of many species.
Thankfully, a couple of mathematicians (read: people with basic numerical skills) pointed out the discrepancy. So, the parties agreed to come back in five years with updated NDCs, that would put them on track to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.
This was meant to happen last year, of course. But the pandemic put a spanner in the works, as pandemics are wont to do.
So here we are, getting ready to see what the world’s leaders have to say for themselves.
This new round of NDCs might describe how countries are going to phase out coal power. They might outline a market’s strategy for transitioning to zero-emissions vehicles, or sketch out how one country will lend support for clean energy projects in developing nations.
Whatever the details, the UK, which is hosting COP26 in partnership with Italy, has made one thing clear: this year’s NDCs need to demonstrate clear, achievable commitments that align with the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees.
It’s easy for the UK, of course. Less than 2 per cent of its energy now comes from coal, and it’s cut emissions by 44 per cent over the past 30 years. But in Australia, the land of jobs and growth, the situation is significantly more awkward.
And we’re not talking your-colleague-offering-you-a-copy-of-their-new-EP-which-they-describe-as-an-innovative-combination-of-spoken-word-poetry-and-screamo awkward.
No. When it comes to the sort of reception Australia can expect to receive at COP26, we’re talking everyone-knows-we-are-actively-burning-the-world-our-grandchildren-will-inherit awkward.
See, while our strongest allies and trading partners are ramping up their 2030 emissions reduction targets, Australia is sticking to the same weak commitment we made in 2015: to reduce emissions 26–28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. And unlike 68 per cent of the world’s economy, Australia has only just announced its “goal” to work towards a net-zero 2050 target.
This doesn’t make us look good on the global stage.
It’s true that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recently praised our Prime Minister’s climate “action”, a term we can only assume she defines very loosely. It’s also true that, when speaking about climate change at a briefing with congressional reporters, she said Australia was “leading the way” and thanked Scott Morrison for his “leadership in that regard”.
But could it be that Pelosi has confused Scott Morrison, Australian Prime Minister, 2018–present, with Scott Morrison, professional footballer, 2005–present? We think it’s highly likely. Because, while the retired Scottish soccer star hasn’t yet taken any drastic action to curb climate change, he’s not – as far as we know – actively propping up the industries pumping out greenhouse gases. Unlike some people we know.
The thing is, Scott Morrison knows what’s at stake. He knows it’s time to commit to net zero, dramatically scale up 2030 targets, and finally put coal and gas to bed.
He’s heard the First Nations communities, standing on the frontlines of the climate crisis and demanding action.
He’s heard the businesses across Australia calling on him to curb emissions.
He’s heard the warnings from the UN, which says the climate crisis will “wreak havoc” across our national economy if Australia doesn’t rapidly phase out coal.
He’s heard the Coalition’s state governments in New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania as they have taken the pledge to reach net zero by 2050.
Recently, he’s even heard his own Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, publicly state his determination to set a net zero goal.
He knows that, if Australia doesn’t drastically scale up our emissions reduction commitment for 2030 and beyond, we’re going to end up a global pariah.
A commitment isn’t enough, of course.
That commitment also needs to lay out a plan for how we’re going to get there. It needs to explain how our government is going to compensate and reskill workers in natural resources industries. It needs to detail the investments we’re going to make in renewable energy. It needs to centre First Nations voices and perspectives. And honestly, if it’s going to get Australia out of the doghouse and onto the table with world leaders who are committed to real action on climate, it needs to be a major gear shift.
But we can do it. The modelling has been done. The economic opportunity is enormous. Our businesses are hankering for climate leadership. Our citizens are ready for change.
So, what is he waiting for? Let’s do this thing.
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